The most expensive property for sale right now in the US is a sprawling mansion on the coast of Florida.

目前在美国市场上最贵的房产是一栋位于佛罗里达州海岸的豪华大宅。

It's listed at nearly $300 million, and according to First Street flood maps, it's all but guaranteed to flood in the next 30 years.

它的售价接近3亿美元， 而根据First Street的洪水地图，它在未来30年内几乎肯定会遭受洪水。

Just up the coast, hurricanes Helene and Milton flooded thousands of homes.

就在海岸附近，飓风海伦和米顿淹没了成千上万的房屋。

Now, homeowners post hurricane flooded houses for sale as is at steep discounts.

现在，房主将被飓风吹袭的房屋以现状大幅打折出售。

But even as disasters and insurance rates make news across the Sunbelt, the population of the south just keeps rising.

但即便灾害和保险费率在阳光带上成为新闻，南部地区的人口仍在持续增长。

Ever since the widespread use of air conditioning, Americans have been flocking to the warm sunny south.

自从空调广泛使用以来，美国人纷纷涌向温暖阳光充足的南方。

And during the pandemic, that trend really escalated.

而且在疫情期间，这一趋势变得更加明显。

- We saw a big spike in migration to places like Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Sunbelt region during the pandemic, and that was largely brought on by low mortgage rates and also remote work, allowing people to live in new parts of the country and still keep their old jobs - Record breaking heat, destructive wildfires, floods, and of course hurricanes have pushed many parts of the south onto the list of riskiest places to live.

- 疫情期间，我们看到大量人口迁移至佛罗里达、德克萨斯、亚利桑那以及阳光地带等地区，这一现象主要归因于低抵押贷款利率以及远程工作模式的普及，使得人们能够在国家的新区域定居，同时保留原有的工作。- 然而，创纪录的高温、破坏性野火、洪水以及不可避免的飓风，已将南方许多地区推上了生活风险最高地区的名单。尽管如此，为何人们仍不断迁往这些地方呢？

So why do people keep moving there?

那么为什么人们还一直往那里搬呢？

And will that ever change?

这种情况会改变吗？

We're going to figure out the one place where that trend has already reversed because the reasons for its population decline gives us a good idea of when people might start leaving places like Florida.

我们将找出那个趋势已经逆转的地方，因为其人口减少的原因为我们提供了线索，让我们能大致预测人们何时可能开始离开佛罗里达等地区。

And there's an even more dangerous population trend that's catching homeowners and insurance companies off guard.

而且，还有一个更为危险的人口趋势，正让房主和保险公司措手不及。

So stay tuned to learn what the future holds for the south.

敬请关注，了解未来南方将面临何种局面。

(curious music) The south is truly ground zero for most of the extreme weather we currently face, and nearly all of it is projected to get worse in the future.

南方确实是目前我们面临的大多数极端天气的重灾区，而且几乎所有的情况都被预测在未来会变得更糟。

But where are the riskiest parts of the region?

但该地区哪些部分风险最大？

Well, let's take a look.

好吧，让我们来看看。

As I know firsthand from living in a place like Atlanta, the south is no stranger to extreme heat and that heat keeps getting worse.

就我住在亚特兰大这样的地方亲身体验而言，南方对极端高温并不陌生， 而且这种高温还在不断加剧。

The hottest city in the US, Phoenix, Arizona, is also one of the fastest growing cities.

美国最热的城市，亚利桑那州的菲尼克斯，也是增长最快的城市之一。

In 2024, it broke its own heat record with 70 days over 110 degrees.

2024年，凤凰城连续70天的温度超过110度，打破了自身的高温记录。

And on top of that heat, the south is also likely to experience more extreme precipitation in the future.

而且在这些高温之上，未来南方地区也可能经历更极端的降水。

The US experienced as much as $500 billion of flood damage in 2024.

美国在2024年遭受了高达5000亿美元的洪水损失。

And a recent study showed that extreme precipitation events are expected to get worse as the climate warms.

最近的一项研究表明，随着气候变暖，极端降水事件预计会变得更加严重。

And sea level rise will make many coastal towns uninhabitable.

并且海平面上升将使许多沿海城镇无法居住。

By 2100, we can expect around three to six feet of sea level rise along the southeast and Gulf coast, which would be devastating.

到2100年， 我们可以预计东南部和墨西哥湾沿岸的海平面将上升约3到6英尺，这将是一场灾难。

But remember, extreme precipitation will also be getting worse.

但请记住，极端降水情况也会变得更加严重。

So if we add a 100 year flood to that sea level rise map, the results are catastrophic.

所以如果我们把百年一遇的洪水加入到海平面上升的地图中，结果将是灾难性的。

Sea level rise and coastal flooding are impacts we are just not prepared for.

海平面上升和沿海洪灾是我们尚未做好应对准备的影响。

Honestly, neither is that $300 million home.

坦白说，那栋价值3亿美元的豪宅也一样毫无准备。

And of course, many of those places exposed to sea level rise are also experiencing larger and more devastating hurricanes.

当然，许多面临海平面上升威胁的地方，也正经历着规模更大、破坏力更强的飓风。

- The warmer ocean temperatures made the hurricanes bigger and stronger and they push more water than would've been the case in the past.

海水温度升高使得飓风变得更大更强，它们推动的水量比过去更多。

And there's no reason to think that that's just gonna stop happening in the future.

而且没有理由认为这种情况在未来会停止发生。

- I'm not saying that the rest of the country is safe from climate change.

我并不是说国内其他地区就能免受气候变化的影响。

Far from it, actually.

实际情况远非如此。

Places that we once thought of as climate havens have experienced some of the most destruction in the last few years.

我们曾认为的气候避难所，在过去几年里却遭受了最为严重的破坏。

But if you look at the layered risks that the southeast is up against, it's clearly a particularly dangerous place to live.

但如果你看看东南部面临的层层风险，很明显那是一个特别危险的居住地。

But have all these climate disasters impacted people's decisions?

但是，所有这些气候灾害是否影响了人们的决定？

- People usually think of those disasters as being one off or maybe part of the deal if you're living in a place like Florida, and it doesn't really disrupt the way that people think about buying a home.

- 人们通常认为这些灾难是偶发事件， 或是在像佛罗里达这样的地方生活所必须承担的风险，并不会真正影响人们购房的决策方式。

- But this hurricane season must be different, right?

但这个飓风季必须有所不同，对吧？

We asked Daryl if she thinks the combination of Hurricane Helene and Milton could be a tipping point for real estate in Florida.

我们询问达里尔，她是否认为飓风海伦和米尔顿的结合可能成为佛罗里达州房地产的转折点。

- For most natural disasters, what happens is that there'll be a slowdown in housing market activity, fewer were listing, fewer sales during the disaster and for some time after disaster, say a few weeks, and then there'll be a recovery period where sales go back up.

对于大多数自然灾害来说， 情况是房地产市场活动会放缓，上市房源减少， 灾难期间及灾后一段时间内，比如几周，销售量也会减少， 然后会有一个销售回升的恢复期。

And if you look at the overall picture for a whole year, you usually don't notice any one disaster.

而且如果你纵观全年整体情况，通常不会注意到某一次灾害。

- So even if one area suffers huge losses, the rest of the state can rebound shockingly quickly.

所以即使一个地区遭受了巨大损失，该州的其他地区也能惊人地迅速恢复。

Those losses do highlight the risk of hurricanes, wind, or wildfires, which could decrease demand.

这些损失确实突显了飓风、大风或野火的风险，这些灾害可能会降低需求。

Instead, we often see home prices nearby going up because there is less housing supply in the region and lots of sudden competition between buyers.

相反，我们常常见到附近房价上涨，原因在于该地区住房供应减少，买家间突然涌现大量竞争。

Extreme events can have a long-term impact if they're part of a trend and a recent study showed a strong correlation between rising homeowners insurance costs and climate risk.

极端事件如果成为一种趋势，可能会产生长期影响，最近的一项研究显示，随着房主保险成本的上升，气候风险也显著增加。

- Florida does have the most expensive home insurance in the country and by a pretty substantial margin.

佛罗里达确实拥有全国最贵的房屋保险，而且差距相当大。

Residents in Florida are literally paying four, four and a half, sometimes even five, times as much for home insurance as the average American.

佛罗里达州的居民实际上为房屋保险支付的费用是美国平均水平的四倍、四倍半，有时甚至是五倍。

- With premiums so high, 15 to 20% of Floridians have chosen not to have homeowners insurance at all.

由于保费如此高昂，15%到20%的佛罗里达人选择根本不购买房屋保险。

That's twice the US average, putting people at high risk when disaster strikes.

这一比例是美国平均水平的两倍，使得人们在灾难来临时面临极高的风险。

- I think those ongoing expenses, those monthly expenses, that's where people really start to realize that these costs are not one-off and that they are going to be an ongoing expense for them if they choose to buy in a risky area.

我认为这些持续的开支， 这些每月的开支，才是人们真正意识到这些费用不是一次性支出， 而是如果他们选择在高风险地区购房， 这些费用将会成为他们持续的开支。

- So does that mean Florida is our one example of this Snowbelt to Sunbelt migration starting to change?

那么这是否意味着佛罗里达州是我们看到的从雪带向阳光带迁移趋势开始改变的一个例子？

- [Daryl] So Miami saw a net outflow of people in 2023.

所以迈阿密在2023年出现了净人口外流。

In Miami, almost 40% of homes face high flood risk.

在迈阿密，近40%的住宅面临高洪水风险。

And also Miami has gotten quite expensive.

而且迈阿密也变得相当昂贵。

As climate change makes those Sunbelt destinations less affordable, they're gonna become less attractive.

随着气候变化使得这些阳光地带的目的地变得更加昂贵，它们对人们的吸引力将会减弱。

- A recent analysis by the moving company Pods showed that Florida dropped down the list from number one to number three for people moving into the state.

最近，搬家公司Pods的一项分析显示，佛罗里达州在人们迁入的州排名中从第一位下降到了第三位。

But while migration has slowed a bit, that's far from a reversal in trends, and Florida continues to be a top migration destination.

但尽管迁徙速度有所放缓，这远非趋势的逆转，佛罗里达州仍然是一个顶级的迁徙目的地。

- [Daryl] In general, people are leaving the most expensive metros, which tend to be on the coast, California, the Northeast, and moving to the Sunbelt.

总的来说， 人们正离开那些最昂贵的大都市，这些地方通常位于沿海、加州和东北部，然后搬到阳光带地区。

So everywhere from North Carolina through Florida, through Arizona, people go there for job opportunities, but also for the mild winters.

所以从北卡罗莱纳州到佛罗里达州，再到亚利桑那州， 人们去那里是因为就业机会，还有那里的温和冬季。

And people are also leaving the Midwest because there aren't as many job opportunities there, and they have those harsh winters.

而且人们也在离开中西部， 因为那里就业机会不多，而且冬季非常严寒。

- The top 20 places people are leaving are mostly expensive cities, and people are flocking to smaller metros and suburbs in Florida, Texas, Arizona, the Carolinas, and even Idaho.

排名前20位的离开地点大多是昂贵的城市，而人们正涌向佛罗里达、得克萨斯、亚利桑那、卡罗来纳以及甚至爱达荷的较小的都市区和郊区。

But there is one place in the south that has lost population for more than five years in a row.

但南方有一个地方连续五年以上人口都在减少。

And this place provides some important clues as to when other states might follow suit and why.

而这个地方提供了一些重要的线索，说明其他州可能何时会步其后尘，以及原因。

Last year I traveled along the coastline of Louisiana and I was shocked to see so many abandoned homes flooded or knocked over by one of the many hurricanes that hit the area.

去年我沿着路易斯安那州的海岸线旅行，令我震惊的是，看到那么多被遗弃的房屋被洪水淹没或被袭击该地区的多次飓风之一吹倒。

And the impact of Hurricane Katrina that happened 20 years ago was still so visible in New Orleans.

二十年前卡特里娜飓风的影响在新奥尔良依然清晰可见。

If you look at billion dollar disasters since 1980, Louisiana ranks in the top three states and people have left.

如果你看看自1980年以来的十亿美元级灾难，路易斯安那州排名前三， 人们已经离开了。

From 2020 to 2023, the state lost 1.68% of its population.

从2020年到2023年，该州失去了1.68%的人口。

- Louisiana has the second highest rates for home insurance in the nation, but Louisiana has the third lowest medium income of any state.

路易斯安那州的房屋保险费率在全国排名第二高，但该州的中等收入在全国排名倒数第三。

There's no state with a larger discrepancy between those numbers of income and a home insurance.

没有一个州的收入和房屋保险费用之间的差距比路易斯安州更大。

In Louisiana, I think it's very possible that it is influencing some people's decisions.

在路易斯安那州，我认为很有可能这正在影响一些人的决定。

- But why have other disaster prone Southern states not had the same fate?

但为什么其他易受灾害影响的南方州没有遭受同样的命运？

- Louisiana, it doesn't have the same job opportunities that Florida has.

路易斯安那州，它没有佛罗里达州那样的就业机会。

It has a big oil and gas industry.

它拥有庞大的石油和天然气产业。

And from what I understand, the tax structure is pretty beneficial to the oil and gas industry over residents.

据我所知，税收结构对石油和天然气行业比对居民更为有利。

High property taxes, you know, those could be substituted with high business taxes if they chose to.

高额的财产税，你知道，这些可以被高额的企业税所替代，如果他们选择这样做的话。

So that might be why they're losing population.

所以这可能是他们人口流失的原因。

- If you look at the list of billion dollar disasters, there's another telling number.

如果你看看那些损失超过十亿美元的灾难列表，还有一个很有说明力的数字。

Not only has the state experienced the most expensive disasters in the US, but the ratio of disasters to GDP is unsustainably high.

该州不仅经历了美国最昂贵的灾害，而且灾害与GDP的比例高到不可持续。

Losing population can be a vicious cycle for a state.

人口流失对一个州来说可能是一个恶性循环。

Fewer people means a smaller tax base and less money to support public services.

人口减少意味着税收基础缩小，用于支持公共服务的资金也随之减少。

Decreasing public services can lead to lower quality of life, causing more people to leave.

公共服务的减少可能导致生活质量下降，从而促使更多人选择离开。

When we visited the state in the summer of 2024, leaving was a major topic of conversation, but there is another region that has a high climate risk and just keeps growing.

当我们2024年夏天访问该州时，离开是一个主要的讨论话题，但另一个气候风险高且人口持续增长的地区也值得关注。

- [Daryl] North Carolina has consistently been a top migration destination.

- [达里尔] 北卡罗来纳州一直是最受欢迎的移民目的地。

- [Maiya] The Pods analysis showed that the Carolinas accounted for 30% of the top 20 cities people are moving to.

- [Maiya] Pods分析显示，卡罗来纳地区占据了人们迁往的前20个城市中的30%。

- The thing that North Carolina and South Carolina have going on for them is that they're good at building housing.

北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州的优势在于它们擅长建设住房。

So I think that's why we continue to see these Carolina cities popping up on our top migration lists.

所以我认为这就是为什么我们继续看到这些卡罗来纳城市出现在我们顶级迁入名单上的原因。

- [Maiya] But as we saw with Hurricane Helene, North Carolina is not immune to climate change.

但正如我们在飓风海伦中所见，北卡罗来纳州也并非免受气候变化的影响。

In fact, flood risk maps show the vulnerability of Western North Carolina, but very few that were in the path of Helene had flood insurance.

事实上， 洪水风险地图显示了北卡罗来纳州西部的脆弱性，但在赫伦路径上的居民中， 很少有人拥有洪水保险。

- Only about 7% of the homeowners in the path of the hurricane had flood insurance.

- 在飓风路径上的房主中，仅有大约7%的人购买了洪水保险。

When you get over to North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, it was probably less than 1%.

当你到了北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州、弗吉尼亚州，可能还不到1%。

- And part of the problem is that people think they'll be bailed out.

问题的部分原因在于，人们认为灾难发生后会得到救助。

- Of course, it's good to help people who are devastated after a major event, but if the process of continually doing post-disaster funding discourages anyone from recognizing how risky their home is, that's an unintended consequence that is very, very negative.

当然，帮助那些在重大事件后陷入困境的人是好事，但如果持续进行灾后资金援助的过程阻碍了任何人认识到他们的住所有多危险，那将是一个非常非常负面的意外后果。

- It's great that places like the Carolinas are building housing rapidly.

像卡罗来纳这样的地方快速建设住房很好。

There is a major housing deficit in many US cities, but if those homes are built in risky places and are left uninsured, well, that doesn't really help anyone.

许多美国城市正面临严重的住房短缺问题，但如果这些新建的房屋位于高风险地区且未投保，那么实际上， 这对任何人都没有帮助。

Right now, insurers are leaving entire states, pushing insurance prices up even for homes that are in less risky areas.

目前， 保险公司正撤离整个州，这使得即使是在风险较低地区的房屋， 保险价格也被推高。

There are places where we really shouldn't be building new housing, but there is also a lot we can do to adapt to the changing climate.

有些地方我们确实不该再建新房，但同时我们也有很多方法来适应气候变化。

And there's some innovation in that space.

在那个领域也有一些创新。

We spoke to the former CEO of Metro Mile, now the CEO of a new company called Stand Insurance.

我们采访了Metro Mile的前首席执行官，他现在是一家名为Stand Insurance的新公司的首席执行官。

His new venture takes the location of each home into account and suggests very specific modifications that can be done to reduce the likelihood of the home being destroyed in a weather event.

他的新创业公司会考虑每栋房屋的位置，并提出具体的改造建议，以降低房屋在天气事件中被毁坏的可能性。

- By helping the homeowner reduce the risk, the insurer is able to save money by not having to pay out as many claims, then being able to reduce the cost of insurance to the homeowner themselves.

- 通过帮助房主降低风险，保险公司能够通过减少理赔支出节省资金，进而降低房主自身的保险费用。

And so insurance can actually play this really important role and serve as a mechanism to then drive investment in adaptation that we desperately need across the world.

因此，保险实际上可以发挥这个非常重要的作用，并作为机制推动我们全球迫切需要的适应性投资。

- And they can do this by using improved risk models.

- 他们可以通过使用改进的风险模型来做到这一点。

- We're modeling things down to an individual species of trees, and then based on the volume of that and its interaction with specific types of materials, we're trying to figure out what the actual likelihood of a structural fire is.

- 我们正在将建模细化到单个树种，然后根据其体积以及与特定材料的相互作用，努力计算出结构火灾发生的实际可能性。

This wouldn't be possible 10 plus years ago.

这在10多年前是无法实现的。

- It doesn't look like this trend of moving to risky Sunbelt states is going to reverse anytime soon.

- 这一迁往风险较高的阳光地带州的趋势，似乎不会在短期内逆转。

And on one hand, this realization that people are moving towards the riskiest areas in our country is surprising to me, as a host for a show about climate science, when I read articles and scientific papers on this topic, I often say to myself, "What are we doing?" But on the other hand, with all of the factors that go into one's decision to move and where, like wanting more space, job opportunities, and proximity to family to name a few, I can see why this is a thing.

一方面，作为一档关于气候科学节目的主持人，当我读到关于这个话题的文章和科学论文时，人们正朝着我们国家风险最大的地区迁移这一事实让我感到惊讶，我经常自问：“我们在做什么？”但另一方面，考虑到人们决定搬家及其目的地的各种因素，比如想要更多的空间、就业机会和靠近家人等，我能理解为什么会这样。

As stated earlier, I myself live in a city in the Sunbelt that's vulnerable to many climate hazards.

正如前面所说，我自己就住在阳光带的一个容易受到多种气候灾害影响的城市。

And ironically, I couldn't imagine myself living anywhere else.

而讽刺的是，我无法想象自己生活在其他地方。

So this, much like many other climate related issues, is complex.

所以，这就像许多其他与气候相关的问题一样，是复杂的。

And startups like Stand Insurance and risk models that incentivize more durable housing are a vital part of the solution and an important step in keeping people safe.

像Stand Insurance这样的初创公司和激励更耐用住房的风险模型是解决方案的重要组成部分，也是保障人们安全的重要步骤。

So I'm curious, do you know the climate risk for where you live?

所以我想知道，你知道你居住的地方面临哪些气候风险吗？

What steps have you taken to protect your home?

你采取了哪些措施来保护你的家？

And what would be a tipping point that will cause you to make the big decision to move?

是什么会成为促使你做出搬家这个重大决定的临界点呢？

I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments below and see you next time on Weathered.

我很想在下方评论区听到你的想法，下次在《Weathered》节目中再见。

(upbeat music)

(upbeat music)